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STRATTEC SECURITY CORP (STRT)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- STRATTEC delivered a clean top-line and margin beat in Q4 FY25: revenue rose 6.3% YoY to $152.0M on pricing, demand and mix, with gross margin expanding 370 bps to 16.7%; adjusted EPS was $2.06 and adjusted EBITDA $13.0M . Versus S&P Global consensus, the quarter beat on revenue, EPS and EBITDA as detailed below (single-analyst coverage for EPS; two for revenue)*.
- Cash generation and liquidity materially strengthened: Q4 cash from operations was $30.2M, ending cash at $84.6M; borrowings under credit facilities fell to $8.0M (JV revolver), leaving the company with ample dry powder for transformation and to buffer market softness .
- Management highlighted near-term demand risk from North American auto production revisions (-5% to -6% in FY26) and a lull in key OEM launch cycles, but reiterated structural levers: price, volume from future launches, and operational improvements; long-term targets include 18%-20% gross margins and low-teens EBITDA margin .
- Tariff headwinds are being mitigated: Q4 saw a $1.6M net tariff impact; management has “line of sight” to recover the majority of costs, though recoveries lag expenses; FY25 actions yielded ~$8M annualized pricing and ~$5M restructuring savings to support margins .
- Potential catalysts: continued gross margin expansion despite macro tempering, sustained CFOA, tariff recoveries/pricing traction, and eventual capital return once predictability improves; risks center on NA build softness, Mexico labor inflation and recovery timing .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- “We delivered measurably improved results with stronger margins and cash flow,” including $8M in annualized pricing, $5M cost takeout and working capital velocity gains (CEO) .
- Gross margin expanded to 16.7% (+370 bps YoY) on FX tailwind (~$3.0M), restructuring savings ($1.3M), pricing and volume; adjusted EBITDA margin was 8.5% .
- Q4 cash from operations was $30.2M, full-year CFOA $71.7M; cash ended at $84.6M with no borrowings on the $40M company revolver, JV revolver borrowings at $8.0M .
- What Went Wrong
- Despite margin expansion, GAAP net income and EPS declined YoY due to a difficult comp: prior-year Q4 SAE benefited from a $4.7M one-time engineering recovery; Q4 FY25 SAE also included higher professional fees, incentive comp and transformation investments .
- Tariffs and higher Mexico labor costs weighed: $1.6M net tariff impact and $1.1M higher labor costs in Mexico in Q4; tariff recoveries tend to lag expenses .
- Management cautioned FY26 revenue is “down to flattish” with industry production expected to decline 5%-6% and a lull in customer launch cycles; Mexico labor inflation is a H2 headwind .
Financial Results
Quarterly performance and trajectory
Q4 YoY comparison
Q4 FY25 actual vs S&P Global consensus
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Cash flow and balance sheet trends
Drivers and commentary (Q4)
- Sales growth drivers: $3.7M pricing, $4.1M demand, $1.2M net new launches, favorable mix .
- Margin drivers: ~$3.0M FX benefit (≈210 bps), $1.3M restructuring savings; offset by $1.6M net tariffs and $1.1M higher Mexico labor; tariff recovery lags .
- SAE: $16.9M vs $8.9M prior-year (Q4 FY24 included $4.7M one-time ED&D recovery); higher professional fees, $2.2M incentive comp, transformation costs and talent investments .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO on transformation and FY25 progress: “We executed over $8 million in new annualized pricing, restructured our operations to take out $5 million in costs and drove significant improvement in our working capital velocity and cash flow focus… While still early in our business transformation, I am encouraged by the progress we have made over the last twelve months.”
- CFO on margin drivers and tariffs: “Gross margin expanded by 370 basis points to 16.7%... benefit from a stronger U.S. dollar, strategic pricing… and $1.3 million of restructuring savings… more than offset $1.6 million of net tariff expenses… we have line of sight to recover the majority of the cost, but the recovery… will lag the associated expenses.”
- CFO on FY26 context: “Current third-party industry projections estimate that North American automotive production for our fiscal 2026 will be lower by about 5% to 6%… We believe the business… is capable of achieving gross margins in the 18% to 20% range… and [a] low teen EBITDA margin [long term].”
Q&A Highlights
- Transformation runway: Management is “still in the early innings,” moving from low-hanging fruit to longer-term structural changes; refocusing engineering capacity toward power access and digital key; considering portfolio reshaping (e.g., de-emphasizing switches) .
- Margin trajectory: Longer-term EBITDA margin in low-teens, underpinned by price, volume from new launches, and operational improvements; incremental/decremental margins 25%-30% .
- Cash usage and capital allocation: Holding elevated cash amid production uncertainty and transformation needs; capital returns considered once predictability improves .
- Digital key and aftermarket: Physical fob remains important; digital key development continues; subscription revenues largely captured by OEMs today; aftermarket ~7% of revenue with opportunity to expand .
- Working capital and inventory: Primary working capital improved to just over 16% of sales (target 15%); inventory likely needs ~$5M increase to support deliveries .
Estimates Context
- Q4 FY25 results beat S&P Global consensus across revenue, EPS and EBITDA: Revenue $152.0M vs $143.5M*, EPS (Primary) $2.06 vs $1.07*, EBITDA $13.0M vs $9.53M* (limited coverage: 1 EPS estimate; 1 revenue estimate for Q4)*.
- Forward snapshot (as context): Q1 FY26 consensus (post quarter) shows revenue $144.9M* and EPS $1.48*; note that consensus breadth is thin (2 revenue, 1 EPS)*. Modeling may need to reflect softer NA production in FY26, pricing tailwind in 1H, labor inflation in H2, and lagging tariff recoveries .
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Beat-and-raise quality print on profitability: broad-based drivers (FX, price, cost actions) overcame tariff and labor headwinds; cash generation and liquidity materially improved .
- Near-term caution warranted: FY26 production downtick and a lull in launches temper volume; expect mixed quarterly cadence with 1H pricing tailwind and H2 Mexico wage pressure .
- Structural margin story intact: Long-term 18%-20% GM and low-teens EBITDA are achievable as pricing sticks, new programs ramp, and operations modernize .
- Tariff overhang manageable: Q4 headwind was $1.6M; recoveries are in process but lag; watch for further commercial recoveries and supply chain reroutes .
- Capital deployment optionality growing: Net cash rising, revolver undrawn; management to prioritize organic investments and modernization, with potential capital returns once earnings predictability increases .
- Watchlist: cadence of tariff recoveries, mix toward power access/digital key, inventory normalization (~$5M increase), and working capital progress toward 15% of sales .
- Trading setup: Continued margin expansion and strong CFOA are positive catalysts; macro softness and labor inflation are primary risks to near-term estimates .